Leadership SeatOffices · crises · institutions

Composite teaching caseApril–August 2026 (composite built on AccelerateEU COM/2026/370, METSAF, and later NEC energy-security guidance)

You are Ursula von der Leyen · President, European Commission

The Second Energy Shock

Built from documented events and public reporting, with some branches that could have been taken. Disputed claims are marked.

1

A price shock with a legal menu

Stakes · Discipline a subsidy race without pretending the Commission can freeze global oil.

Late April 2026. The is de facto closed. Oil, gas, and fertiliser prices jump. Households and energy-intensive firms queue in national ministries.

COM/2026/370, 22 April: there is no immediate threat to security of supply, though some fuel stocks are tight. The extra €24 billion on fossil-fuel imports since the conflict began is a higher bill for the same molecules. diversified suppliers after 2022. Tanks can be full while invoices are not.

Do nothing and Germany and France notify industrial packages that punch holes in the single market. Do too much and you launder a subsidy race through Berlaymont letterhead. is the folder name. Von der Leyen still chooses what is inside.

Constraints of the office here

— You cannot tax or borrow by announcement.
— State-aid compatibility is yours; ships, storage, and grids are national.
— Unanimity still sits on parts of the fiscal shelf.

Options · keys 1–3

Powers of this office

This office can

Set the Commission’s political guidelines, allocate portfolios, and break ties in the College.
Propose legislation and crisis Communications (AccelerateEU, temporary state-aid frameworks) that structure what capitals then do.
Decide state-aid compatibility — an exclusive Commission competence.
Speak for the Union’s executive in the European Council and vis-à-vis Washington, Kyiv, and industry.

This office cannot

Tax, raise a new common debt instrument, or rewrite the treaties without the Member States.
Override unanimity where the treaties still require it (much of taxation and some foreign policy).
Command national energy grids, storage inventories, or armed forces.
Ignore the European Parliament where codecision applies, or the European Council where the bargain is struck.

Veto players

European Council (heads of state or government)
Sets the political direction. Germany and France still move markets; a blocking minority of four can stop qualified majority voting (QMV).
Competition Commissioner and Legal Service
A state-aid framework that looks like a blank cheque will be fought inside the Berlaymont.
European Parliament
Can withhold discharge, amend legislation, and turn social compensation into a public test of the President.
National finance and energy ministers
They notify aid, fill storage, and face voters on prices. The Commission designs; they spend.

What this case rests on

Treaties, votes, speeches, and dates a seminar can open.

Sources

1. AccelerateEU – Energy Union, COM/2026/370 (EUR-Lex 52026DC0370)
22 April 2026 Communication. Closure of Hormuz; extra €24bn on fossil-fuel imports since the conflict began; no immediate threat to security of supply, though some fuel stocks are tight.
2. METSAF, Communication C/2026/2593 (EUR-Lex 52026XC02593)
Adopted 29 April 2026, OJ 5 May 2026. De facto Hormuz closure; Article 107(3)(c) TFEU; agriculture, fisheries, transport extra fuel/fertiliser costs; temporary CISAF §4.5 intensity rise.
3. Commission, METSAF competition-policy page
Official summary: in place until 31 December 2026; 70% of extra fuel/fertiliser costs in listed sectors; CISAF §4.5 electricity relief 50%→70%.
4. Commission Notice C/2026/4514 — NEC energy-security guidance (EUR-Lex 52026XC04514)
OJ 18 August 2026. Announced in the 3 June Spring Package. Measures decided after 28 February 2026; 0.3% GDP/year and 0.6% cumulative; fossil price subsidies and excise cuts excluded.
5. European Commission, “EU action to address the energy crisis”
Narrative page: price spike, no immediate security-of-supply concern, METSAF until 31 December 2026, later NEC guidance.
6. Commission, AccelerateEU energy-resilience page
22 April 2026 package date; five action areas; 29 April METSAF adoption listed as a follow-up.
7. EUR-Lex glossary, qualified majority voting
55% of states / 65% of population; blocking minority of at least four.
8. 2026 State of the Union Address, 16 September 2026 (Commission transcript)
Later political frame: economy withstood Middle East wars better than expected; energy prices still biting; defence spending; Greenland.
9. European Council decision appointing the Commission 2024–2029
Von der Leyen as President from 1 December 2024.

Glossary

AccelerateEU
Commission Communication COM/2026/370 of 22 April 2026 on the Middle East energy-price shock.
Aman
Israeli military intelligence directorate (Agaf HaModi'in).
Article 4
North Atlantic Treaty clause requiring consultation when an Ally’s security is threatened.
Article 5
NATO’s collective-defence clause: an armed attack on one Ally is an attack on all.
Article 6
North Atlantic Treaty clause that sets the geographic area for Articles 5 and 4.
Assembly of Experts
An elected clerical body that appoints and, in theory, supervises the Supreme Leader.
AUM
Assets under management — the market value of client money an asset manager invests.
CISAF
Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework — standing Commission rules for industrial decarbonisation aid.
CMC
Central Military Commission — the body that commands China’s armed forces.
Codecision
Ordinary legislative procedure: Parliament and Council as co-legislators.
College
The College of Commissioners — the Commission’s political cabinet of 27, one per member state.
Consensus
NATO’s decision rule: a decision stands only if no Ally objects.

Dotted terms in the briefing open the full note. The shared glossary lists core IR and finance vocabulary.