Leadership SeatOffices · crises · institutions

Historical reconstruction27 December 2019–8 January 2020 (historical reconstruction); officeholder brief current as of September 2026

You are Donald J. Trump · President, United States

The Baghdad Strike

Forks are the kinds of choices the office actually faced. The documented path is labelled in the rationale.

1

The embassy is burning

Stakes · Whether you answer the K-1 death and the Baghdad embassy siege with a decapitation strike on Soleimani — and whether you move before Congress, Iraq, or allies can object.

It is the first days of January 2020. A U.S. contractor died at on 27 December. You ordered strikes on Kataib Hezbollah on 29 December. Protesters breached the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad on 31 December.

Intelligence places Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) , on a known flight into Baghdad. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and U.S. Central Command want a narrow window. Office of Legal Counsel is split: does the 2002 cover an Iranian general, or is Article II of the U.S. Constitution plus imminent threat enough?

You can strike on the military timeline. You can brief congressional leadership first and risk the window. You can insist on Iraqi consent before anyone fires.

Constraints of the office here

— The 27 December [[K-1]] attack killed a U.S. contractor. The 31 December embassy assault followed your 29 December strikes on militia sites.
— Soleimani landed at Baghdad airport on a commercial schedule you can see.
— Iraq is sovereign territory. Iran will answer.

Options · keys 1–3

Powers of this office

This office can

Direct U.S. armed forces as commander-in-chief and set nuclear and conventional red lines.
Impose or waive sanctions under statutes Congress has already written (including IEEPA).
Recognize governments, negotiate, and speak for the United States abroad.
Propose budgets and emergency supplemental spending; Congress still appropriates.

This office cannot

Declare war as a constitutional matter — Congress holds that power — or spend money Congress has not appropriated.
Ignore the War Powers Resolution’s reporting clock, even when administrations contest its force.
Compel allies to contribute forces, bases, or intelligence they refuse to give.
Make the Federal Reserve cut rates, or make a combatant commander un-see a legal order.

Veto players

Congress
Appropriations, authorizations, sanctions statutes, and the War Powers clock. A majority can also constrain by investigation.
Cabinet, Joint Chiefs, and combatant commanders
They can slow, leak, or demand written orders. They cannot lawfully refuse a valid order, but they shape what is presented as feasible.
Federal courts
Can enjoin some domestic and immigration acts. War and recognition decisions are largely political questions.
Allies and markets
NATO, Gulf energy producers, and dollar-clearing banks can blunt or amplify a presidential choice within days.

What this case rests on

Treaties, votes, speeches, and dates a seminar can open.

Sources

1. U.S. Department of Defense, statement on strike against Qasem Soleimani (3 January 2020)
Official U.S. account of the strike at Baghdad airport; imminence framing.
2. White House, remarks by President Trump on Iran (8 January 2020)
Response after Iran’s 8 January missile attack on Al Asad; no further military escalation announced.
3. Congress.gov, S.J.Res.68 — direct removal of forces from hostilities with Iran (passed 13 February 2020)
War Powers resolution; vetoed 6 May 2020.
4. Reuters, Iraq parliament votes to expel U.S. troops (5 January 2020)
Non-binding vote after the Soleimani strike; political constraint on the U.S. presence.
5. Brookings, Order from Chaos — the Soleimani strike and War Powers
Legal and congressional politics reconstruction.
6. CFR, U.S. policy on Iran and Iraq after the strike
Regional context; AUMF and Article II debate.

Glossary

Aman
Israeli military intelligence directorate (Agaf HaModi'in).
Article 4
North Atlantic Treaty clause requiring consultation when an Ally’s security is threatened.
Article 5
NATO’s collective-defence clause: an armed attack on one Ally is an attack on all.
Article 6
North Atlantic Treaty clause that sets the geographic area for Articles 5 and 4.
Assembly of Experts
An elected clerical body that appoints and, in theory, supervises the Supreme Leader.
AUM
Assets under management — the market value of client money an asset manager invests.
AUMF
Authorization for Use of Military Force — a statute Congress passes to authorize military action against named enemies.
CMC
Central Military Commission — the body that commands China’s armed forces.
College
The College of Commissioners — the Commission’s political cabinet of 27, one per member state.
Consensus
NATO’s decision rule: a decision stands only if no Ally objects.
ESG
Environmental, social, and governance — a contested label for non-financial factors in investing.
ETF
Exchange-traded fund — a fund whose shares trade on an exchange throughout the day.

Dotted terms in the briefing open the full note. The shared glossary lists core IR and finance vocabulary.