Leadership SeatOffices · crises · institutions

Historical reconstruction18–24 February 2022 (historical reconstruction); officeholder brief current as of September 2026

You are Marco Rubio · Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (and Secretary of State), United States

The Paper That Reaches the President

Forks are the kinds of choices the office actually faced. The documented path is labelled in the rationale.

What paper goes to the Oval this week

Stakes · Whether the President decides from one integrated memo or from whoever walks in first.

It is 18 February 2022. U.S. intelligence assesses a full-scale Russian invasion as imminent. Kyiv is sceptical. Berlin asks what Washington will do on energy and banks. The has three unfinished products: intelligence sharing, a sanctions menu, and a force-posture paper for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) east.

Jake Sullivan (in this reconstruction) must sequence them. One integrated memo forces President Biden to choose a package. Three walk-ins let Defense, Treasury, and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) each own a slice.

Constraints of the office here

— You do not command forces or appropriate money.
— Cabinet secretaries can bypass you if the President takes their call.

Options · keys 1–3

Powers of this office

This office can

Set the National Security Council (NSC) agenda, run the Principals Committee, and decide which options reach the President.
As Secretary of State, instruct U.S. diplomats and speak for foreign policy. The National Security Advisor hat was acting from May 2025 after Mike Waltz left, and the commission was made permanent on 22 September 2026 — the same two-hat form Henry Kissinger once held.
Broker or block interagency papers from Defense, Treasury, CIA, and the Joint Chiefs.
Use proximity to the Oval Office — a West Wing desk — to get a decision in hours rather than weeks.

This office cannot

Issue military orders. Combatant commanders take orders from the President through the Secretary of Defense.
Spend money Congress has not appropriated.
Make cabinet secretaries stop going around the process if the President takes their calls.
Be two full-time principals at once without a staffing cost. The dual hat is the teaching constraint.

Veto players

The President
The National Security Advisor is a staff officer. Influence dies if the President prefers another channel.
Secretary of Defense, Joint Chiefs, and CIA Director
They can bring options that were not on your paper. Dual-hatting State does not dissolve Defense.
White House Chief of Staff
Controls access, time, and who sits in the room.
Congress
Treaties, sanctions, and appropriations. Senators will also ask whether State is being run while you sit in the West Wing.

What this case rests on

Treaties, votes, speeches, and dates a seminar can open.

Sources

1. Congressional Research Service, The National Security Council: Background and Issues for Congress
Statutory NSC, staff role of the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, principals and deputies process.
2. Remarks by President Biden on Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified attack on Ukraine (24 February 2022)
Public line: sanctions, no U.S. combat forces in Ukraine, NATO will be defended. The NSA’s product is the process that produced those sentences.
3. White House, Statement by Advisor Jake Sullivan on Russia’s military activities (18 February 2022)
Public intelligence warning in the week before the invasion. Illustrates the Advisor as a designated speaker, not only a hidden staffer.

Glossary

Aman
Israeli military intelligence directorate (Agaf HaModi'in).
Article 4
North Atlantic Treaty clause requiring consultation when an Ally’s security is threatened.
Article 5
NATO’s collective-defence clause: an armed attack on one Ally is an attack on all.
Article 6
North Atlantic Treaty clause that sets the geographic area for Articles 5 and 4.
Assembly of Experts
An elected clerical body that appoints and, in theory, supervises the Supreme Leader.
AUM
Assets under management — the market value of client money an asset manager invests.
CMC
Central Military Commission — the body that commands China’s armed forces.
College
The College of Commissioners — the Commission’s political cabinet of 27, one per member state.
Consensus
NATO’s decision rule: a decision stands only if no Ally objects.
Deputies Committee
The sub-cabinet NSC body that drafts options and identifies disagreements before principals meet.
ESG
Environmental, social, and governance — a contested label for non-financial factors in investing.
ETF
Exchange-traded fund — a fund whose shares trade on an exchange throughout the day.

Dotted terms in the briefing open the full note. The shared glossary lists core IR and finance vocabulary.