Disputed
Washington treated the timing as political (midterms, gasoline prices). Riyadh treated it as a pre-emptive response to a weaker demand outlook and higher interest rates. Both claims are public. Neither is a document the other side signed.
Vienna, 5 October 2022
Stakes · Whether Saudi Arabia leads OPEC+ into a 2 million barrel-per-day cut against U.S. pressure.
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee has met. The 33rd ministerial is in the building. Staff tables can support a 2 million barrel-per-day cut from August 2022 required production levels, starting in November. Some members want a smaller number. The United States has asked you not to cut.
The is the White House’s parallel instrument. Gasoline prices in the United States have come off summer highs. Midterms are a month away. A cut will be read in Washington as a choice against an administration that also sells the Kingdom security.
You can lead the 2 million cut. You can shrink it. You can hold quotas and keep the U.S. channel calm.
Constraints of the office here
- — The Crown Prince owns the security relationship with Washington. You own the Vienna communiqué, if he backs it.
- — Several members are already below quota. A 2 million headline is not 2 million physical barrels.
- — U.S. midterm elections are 8 November. SPR releases are already in the market.
Options · keys 1–3